This Week in Charts: Are Prediction Markets Politically Biased? · a16z News
Business, Finance & Industries · Oct 9, 2026
A preliminary NBER analysis of more than a century of prediction markets found no statistically meaningful partisan, gender, racial, or age bias in candidate pricing, with only a weak and insignificant tendency to overrate right-leaning candidates in non-U.S. elections. The markets may nevertheless aggregate useful information early, as illustrated by Flávio Bolsonaro becoming the Brazilian-election favorite weeks before winning and a subsequent rise in Brazil’s stock ETF.
This Week in Charts: Are Prediction Markets Politically Biased? · a16z News
Business, Finance & Industries · Oct 9, 2026
Call-center employment has shifted from long-term growth to synchronized global decline, increasingly consistent with AI-driven occupational substitution even though broad economy-wide job losses remain limited.
This Week in Charts: Are Prediction Markets Politically Biased? · a16z News
Business, Finance & Industries · Oct 9, 2026
AI investment is increasingly concentrating profit growth in physical infrastructure—especially energy, semiconductors, and hardware—while software and broader IT benefit less; rising industrial backlogs and accelerating AI-hardware shipments reinforce this shift.
This Week in Charts: Are Prediction Markets Politically Biased? · a16z News
Business, Finance & Industries · Oct 9, 2026
The Rule of 40 has become a weaker software valuation benchmark because its combined growth-and-profitability score obscures the fact that public markets now reward revenue growth far more than margins. Despite rising Rule of X scores, software revenue multiples fell, and premium valuations were concentrated among the fastest-growing companies, especially in cybersecurity and observability.