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Sometimes powerful people just do dumb shit

Westenberg.

Apr 13, 2026

4/13/2026

Treat Founder's Vision as a Hypothesis and Test It Against Execution Data

Sometimes powerful people just do dumb shit · Westenberg.

Business, Finance & Industries · Apr 13, 2026

The document argues that supporters reframed Elon Musk’s clear operational failures at Twitter (waived due diligence, mass layoffs removing key staff, verification mishandling that enabled an Eli Lilly impersonation, and advertiser flight) as a “hidden strategy,” but outcomes—including a 2026 jury finding Musk liable for misleading investors, rehiring of fired critical staff, and an ~80% loss in company value—show that “visionary founder” explanations must be tested against execution data rather than accepted by default.


4/13/2026

Cognitive Biases Create Unfalsifiable Narratives That Undermine Accountability And Demand Falsifiable Decision Criteria

Sometimes powerful people just do dumb shit · Westenberg.

Culture & Society · Apr 13, 2026

The essay argues that just-world intuition, pattern-seeking, and status-flattery make people over-attribute coherent 'master plans' to powerful actors, producing unfalsifiable narratives that erode accountability and sustain personality cults, so strategies need upfront, falsifiable criteria and clear milestones.


4/13/2026

Extreme Early Success Undermines Decision Quality By Suppressing Social And Organizational Feedback

Sometimes powerful people just do dumb shit · Westenberg.

Business, Finance & Industries · Apr 13, 2026

Extreme prior success can erode decision quality by removing feedback and dissent—Napoleon’s 1812 Russian campaign, driven by overconfidence and an unchallenging inner circle and lacking supply planning or a clear end state, resulted in roughly 500,000 casualties and permanently weakened his military, showing why governance and dissent matter most when leaders are celebrated.


4/13/2026

Shifting Resources From Core Product Development To Media Assets Signals Governance Drift In A Competitive AI Race

Sometimes powerful people just do dumb shit · Westenberg.

Business, Finance & Industries · Apr 13, 2026

OpenAI’s reported purchase of TBPN is criticized as narrative-control spending that may have diverted capital from core model development, signaling strategic incoherence and potential governance drift unless tied to testable operational objectives.