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Matt Cole (@ColeMacro): Another very long macro post, but I don't write these often. We are watching the most interesting ma

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Aug 25, 2026

8/25/2026

Fiscal Strain Is Expected To Show Up As Dollar Weakness Rather Than Through Sustained Higher Yields Or Swift Spending Reform

Matt Cole (@ColeMacro): Another very long macro post, but I don't write these often. We are watching the most interesting ma · X

Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026

Matt Cole argues that persistent U.S. deficits and above-target inflation will likely be addressed politically through a weaker dollar rather than spending cuts, entitlement reform, or sustainably higher Treasury yields. He views a DXY decline into the high-60s or low-70s as plausible, though explicitly as his own analytical forecast.


8/25/2026

Small Treasury Interventions Signal Policy Resolve And Potentially Escalate Yields

Matt Cole (@ColeMacro): Another very long macro post, but I don't write these often. We are watching the most interesting ma · X

Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026

Cole argues that signaling official support for long-term Treasuries may backfire: small purchases could reveal a defended yield level, encourage investors to test policymakers’ resolve, push yields higher, and force larger intervention. He cites the Fed’s roughly $1.6 trillion holdings of long-maturity Treasuries and Treasury’s increased planned purchases, while emphasizing that escalation is a forecast rather than established fact.


8/25/2026

5.25% To 5.85% On The 10-Year Yield Is A Conditional Threshold That Could Prompt Stronger Policy Action And Wider Market Effects, With Potential Long-Duration Treasuries Support If Yields Are Pushed Down

Matt Cole (@ColeMacro): Another very long macro post, but I don't write these often. We are watching the most interesting ma · X

Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026

Cole views a 5.25%–5.85% 10-year Treasury yield as a potential crisis threshold that could prompt aggressive fiscal and monetary intervention, possibly making long-duration Treasuries attractive if policymakers force yields lower; this remains a scenario, not a confirmed policy plan.


8/25/2026

Bitcoin Benefits From Dollar Debasement And AI-Related Uncertainty With A Directional Investment Thesis To Own Before Resolution

Matt Cole (@ColeMacro): Another very long macro post, but I don't write these often. We are watching the most interesting ma · X

Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026

Cole’s thesis combines dollar debasement, Bitcoin’s growing monetization, and AI-driven uncertainty about corporate moats into a compounded scarcity case for owning Bitcoin before short-term macro uncertainty resolves, while acknowledging possible near-term selloffs and Treasury upside.