Aug 25, 2026
Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026
Matt Cole argues that persistent U.S. deficits and above-target inflation will likely be addressed politically through a weaker dollar rather than spending cuts, entitlement reform, or sustainably higher Treasury yields. He views a DXY decline into the high-60s or low-70s as plausible, though explicitly as his own analytical forecast.
Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026
Cole argues that signaling official support for long-term Treasuries may backfire: small purchases could reveal a defended yield level, encourage investors to test policymakers’ resolve, push yields higher, and force larger intervention. He cites the Fed’s roughly $1.6 trillion holdings of long-maturity Treasuries and Treasury’s increased planned purchases, while emphasizing that escalation is a forecast rather than established fact.
Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026
Cole views a 5.25%–5.85% 10-year Treasury yield as a potential crisis threshold that could prompt aggressive fiscal and monetary intervention, possibly making long-duration Treasuries attractive if policymakers force yields lower; this remains a scenario, not a confirmed policy plan.
Business, Finance & Industries · Aug 25, 2026
Cole’s thesis combines dollar debasement, Bitcoin’s growing monetization, and AI-driven uncertainty about corporate moats into a compounded scarcity case for owning Bitcoin before short-term macro uncertainty resolves, while acknowledging possible near-term selloffs and Treasury upside.